Technical indicators show multi-dimensional breakthrough signals. On the SOL daily chart, the 50-day moving average (currently 138) has crossed above the 200-day moving average (122) for the first time, forming a golden cross. This pattern, which emerged in January 2023, triggered an 87% quarterly increase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained within the 65-70 range for five consecutive days, breaking through the overbought threshold without showing a top divergence. Historical data indicates that this state has lasted for an average of 12 days, accompanied by a 21% price increase. More crucially, there was an abnormal movement in trading volume: when the resistance level of $145 was broken, it was accompanied by a single-day trading volume of $430 million, reaching 240% of the 30-day average, verifying that the demand strength was higher than the peak selling pressure during the Solana network outage in March 2024.
On-chain activities strengthen fundamental support. The total amount of SOL staked has increased to 378 million (accounting for 73% of the circulation), up 7% from last month. The increase in locked value has alleviated the short-term circulation pressure. The weekly trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) exceeded 12 billion US dollars, accounting for 26.5% of the entire market. Among them, the SOL trading pair on the Raydium platform increased by 41% in a single week. The developer ecosystem has expanded simultaneously. The number of projects participating in the Solana hackathon has increased by 68% quarter-on-quarter. Data from the NFT market Tensor shows that the average daily minting volume of the new series has reached 23,000, a 490% recovery from the bear market trough. Key data can be assisted in judgment by real-time monitoring of the TVL (Total Value Locked) trend in the sol chart.
The derivatives market has exposed the layout of professional investors. The open interest of SOL perpetual contracts has exceeded 1.6 billion US dollars, reaching a six-month high. However, the funding rate has remained stable at 0.01% per 8h, and there are no signs of overheating leverage (this value was as high as 0.09% before the crash in November 2023). The proportion of call options in the options market rose to 63%, with the weekly open interest of 150-160 strike price contracts increasing by 190,140. A total of 72 million US dollars worth of futures long positions were established at the position, accounting for 34% of its crypto exposure.
Macro risks still require vigilance against local pullbacks. The 90-day correlation coefficient between SOL and the Nasdaq 100 index is 0.74. If the Federal Reserve delays cutting interest rates (the current market expectation for a rate cut probability in September is only 56%), historical backtesting shows that a 5% decline in technology stocks will cause SOL to fall by 7.2% simultaneously. Network performance risks still exist. Although the Firedancer upgrade in 2024 has increased transaction processing capacity to 65,000 TPS, the testnet has still experienced a 3.2-hour daily outage recently. From a technical perspective, there is strong resistance in the $155- $160 range. On-chain data estimates that there are 240 million USD of trapped positions in 2022 at this point. The average daily trading volume needs to remain above 800 million USD to sustain the breakthrough.